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FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT UNIT SOMALIA FOCUS REPORTS

ANNUAL POST GU 2003 FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK

Objectives of the Post Gu Food Security Outlook:
Assessment of agricultural and pastoral conditions following the main Gu rainy season
Identification and analysis of key factors influencing food security
Projection of food security outlook through the next Gu season (ending July 2004)

OVERVIEW OF METHODS

Secondary Data Analysis: satellite imagery, market prices, nutritional surveys, security reports
Field Assessment : agricultural and pastoral conditions, community and key informant interviews,
farmer surveys, observation
Livelihoods Analysis: Integration of agricultural/pastoral field data with access variables
(e.g., market prices) to project hh entitlement and food security outlook from livelihood baselines
Nutrition: Integration of nutritional surveys with food security outlook to project trends
Collaboration: Twenty Two agencies participated in field work and analysis. FSAU held a
technical working session in Hargeisa with stakeholders to review preliminary findings

Key Findings
Gu rains (March-June) cumulatively above normal in southern agricultural areas (although distribution erratic), and generally below normal in northern pastoral areas, especially around Sool Plateau (Fig A).
Total Gu 2003 cereal production estimated at 169,400 Mt, 25% less than 2002 and 8% less than post war average (PWA). Fig B shows historic trends and sorghum-maize proportions
Largest declines in production in Bakol and Hiran (-89%, -86%), with Nthe largest increase in Lower Shabelle (+34%)
Livestock/pastoral conditions generally normal throughout Somalia with notable exceptions in Sool Plateau/Nugal Valley areas, which have experienced four years of successive drought
Cereal market prices continue 5-year downward trend (Fig C).
Key factors affecting food security: civil insecurity, erratic rainfall and pest outbreaks combined with poor resource management, restricted
Projected number of vulnerable rural populations with a scenario of Deyr rains of 100%=233,900 people and with Deyr rains 50% =616,300 (Maps 1a and 2a show distribution and level of severity) 1 March 2003�30 June 2003

Cross-Cutting Issues

Civil insecurity continues to fundamentally undermine food security, requiring more robust analysis and advocacy
Environmental degradation, particularly charcoal production, is accelerating and will erode away the very base of the Somali economy (pastoralism) and cultural identity, and inevitably lead to increased struggle over natural resources
Livestock ban remains, but exports slowing recovering
IDPs and poor urban populations continue to be chronically food insecure (estimated IDP population is 350,000)
Cross Border Cereal trade especially in context of large food aid in Ethiopia; requires analysis on the impact in Somalia�s markets


FSAU FOCUS Archive

FSAU's Key Technical Partners